Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence

# Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence > OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W1954685264 ## Bibliographic - **DOI:** 10.3386/w21162 - **Year:** 2015 - **Citations:** 1934 - **Open Access:** Yes (green) - **License:** — - **Source:** https://doi.org/10.3386/w21162 ## Authors - Hélène Rey ## Abstract There is a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and in credit growth. This cycle co moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Asset markets in countries with more credit inflows are more sensitive to the global cycle. The global financial cycle is not aligned with countries' specific macroeconomic conditions. Symptoms can go from benign to large asset price bubbles and excess credit creation, which are among the best predictors of financial crises. A VAR analysis suggests that one of the determinants of the global financial cycle is monetary policy in the centre country, which affects leverage of global banks, capital flows and credit growth in the international financial system. Whenever capital is freely mobile, the global financial cycle constrains national monetary policies regardless of the exchange rate regime. ## Keywords Trilemma, Economics, Monetary policy, Monetary economics, International finance, Financial capital, Capital account, Finance, Market economy ## Concepts - Trilemma - Economics - Monetary policy - Monetary economics - International finance - Financial capital - Capital account - Finance - Market economy - Human capital --- *Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*

Bài “Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence” được TradingBase chuyển thành Knowledge Product cho trader — không phải trang đọc abstract OpenAlex. Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): There is a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and in credit growth. This cycle co moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Asset markets in countries with more credit inflows are more sensitive to the global cycle. The global financial cycle is not aligned with countries' specific macroeconomic conditions. Symptoms can go from benign to large asset price bubbles and excess credit creation, which are among the best predictors of financial crises. A VAR analysis suggests that one of the determinants of the global financial cycle is monetary policy in the centre country, which affects leverage of global banks, capital flows and credit growth in the international financial system. Whenever capital is freely mobile, the global financial cycle constrains national monetary policies regardless of the exchange rate regime. Phần Trading Insights bên dưới nối nghiên cứu với Forex, vàng, USD, lãi suất và risk regime — để bạn đưa vào journal và playbook. Metadata DOI/OA chỉ là rail tham chiếu; nội dung chính là summary, takeaways và ứng dụng thị trường do Content Factory sinh.