In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We…
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Recession · Keynesian economics · Economics · Fiscal multiplier · Fiscal policy · Great recession · Econometrics · Government spending
# Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion
> OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W2160325801
## Bibliographic
- **DOI:** 10.3386/w17447
- **Year:** 2011
- **Citations:** 246
- **Open Access:** Yes (green)
- **License:** —
- **Source:** https://doi.org/10.3386/w17447
## Authors
- Alan J. Auerbach
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko
## Abstract
In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We adapt our previous methodology Our findings confirm those of our earlier paper. In particular, GDP multipliers of government purchases are larger in recession, and controlling for real-time predictions of government purchases tends to increase the estimated multipliers of government purchases in recession. We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables and find that these responses generally vary over the cycle as well, in a pattern consistent with the varying impact on GDP.
## Keywords
Recession, Keynesian economics, Economics, Fiscal multiplier, Fiscal policy, Great recession, Econometrics, Government spending
## Concepts
- Recession
- Keynesian economics
- Economics
- Fiscal multiplier
- Fiscal policy
- Great recession
- Econometrics
- Government spending
- Welfare
- Market economy
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*Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*
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Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We adapt our previous methodology Our findings confirm those of our earlier paper. In particular, GDP multipliers of government purchases are larger in recession, and controlling for real-time predictions of government purchases tends to increase the estimated multipliers of government purchases in recession. We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables and find that these responses generally vary over the cycle as well, in a pattern consistent with the varying impact on GDP.
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1. In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for a large number of OECD countries, allowing these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and using real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components.
2. We adapt our previous methodology Our findings confirm those of our earlier paper.
3. In particular, GDP multipliers of government purchases are larger in recession, and controlling for real-time predictions of government purchases tends to increase the estimated multipliers of government purchases in recession.
4. We also consider the responses of other key macroeconomic variables and find that these responses generally vary over the cycle as well, in a pattern consistent with the varying impact on GDP.
Trader nên nối luận điểm policy/lãi suất trong tài liệu với bias trung hạn của USD và các cặp major — đặc biệt quanh FOMC / dữ liệu CPI.
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Đọc tài liệu theo góc macro cycle: tăng trưởng / recession narrative ảnh hưởng risk-on/off và correlation giữa equities, USD và vàng.
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