Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending
We examine the evidence on episodes of large stances in fiscal policy, both in cases of fiscal stimuli and in that of fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from 1970 to 2007. Fiscal stimuli based upon tax cuts are more likely to increase growth than those based upon spending…
# Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending
> OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W3122179543
## Bibliographic
- **DOI:** 10.3386/w15438
- **Year:** 2009
- **Citations:** 638
- **Open Access:** Yes (green)
- **License:** —
- **Source:** https://doi.org/10.3386/w15438
## Authors
- Alberto Alesina
- Silvia Ardagna
## Abstract
We examine the evidence on episodes of large stances in fiscal policy, both in cases of fiscal stimuli and in that of fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from 1970 to 2007. Fiscal stimuli based upon tax cuts are more likely to increase growth than those based upon spending increases. As for fiscal adjustments, those based upon spending cuts and no tax increases are more likely to reduce deficits and debt over GDP ratios than those based upon tax increases. In addition, adjustments on the spending side rather than on the tax side are less likely to create recessions. We confirm these results with simple regression analysis.
## Keywords
Fiscal policy, Economics, Monetary economics, Fiscal year, Macroeconomics, Finance
## Concepts
- Fiscal policy
- Economics
- Monetary economics
- Fiscal year
- Macroeconomics
- Finance
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*Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*
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Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): We examine the evidence on episodes of large stances in fiscal policy, both in cases of fiscal stimuli and in that of fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from 1970 to 2007. Fiscal stimuli based upon tax cuts are more likely to increase growth than those based upon spending increases. As for fiscal adjustments, those based upon spending cuts and no tax increases are more likely to reduce deficits and debt over GDP ratios than those based upon tax increases. In addition, adjustments on the spending side rather than on the tax side are less likely to create recessions. We confirm these results with simple regression analysis.
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1. We examine the evidence on episodes of large stances in fiscal policy, both in cases of fiscal stimuli and in that of fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from 1970 to 2007.
2. Fiscal stimuli based upon tax cuts are more likely to increase growth than those based upon spending increases.
3. As for fiscal adjustments, those based upon spending cuts and no tax increases are more likely to reduce deficits and debt over GDP ratios than those based upon tax increases.
4. In addition, adjustments on the spending side rather than on the tax side are less likely to create recessions.
5. We confirm these results with simple regression analysis.
Trader nên nối luận điểm policy/lãi suất trong tài liệu với bias trung hạn của USD và các cặp major — đặc biệt quanh FOMC / dữ liệu CPI.
Với XAUUSD: kỳ vọng cắt lãi / USD yếu thường hỗ trợ vàng; hawkish surprise thường gây áp lực giảm — dùng khung này để đọc reaction sau tin, không đoán trước.
Đọc tài liệu theo góc macro cycle: tăng trưởng / recession narrative ảnh hưởng risk-on/off và correlation giữa equities, USD và vàng.
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Góc Gold (XAUUSD): đối chiếu kết luận bài với hành giá gần nhất và lịch tin impact cao trước khi vào lệnh.
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