A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal…
# Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy
> OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W3121786260
## Bibliographic
- **DOI:** 10.1257/pol.4.2.1
- **Year:** 2012
- **Citations:** 1746
- **Open Access:** No (closed)
- **License:** —
- **Source:** https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.2.1
## Authors
- Alan J. Auerbach
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko
## Abstract
A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently relative to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of fiscal shocks tends to increase the size of the multipliers in recessions. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63)
## Keywords
Economics, Fiscal multiplier, Recession, Fiscal policy, Government spending, Multiplier (economics), Macroeconomics, Aggregate demand, Aggregate (composite), Monetary economics, Business cycle, Monetary policy, Econometrics, Welfare
## Concepts
- Economics
- Fiscal multiplier
- Recession
- Fiscal policy
- Government spending
- Multiplier (economics)
- Macroeconomics
- Aggregate demand
- Aggregate (composite)
- Monetary economics
- Business cycle
- Monetary policy
- Econometrics
- Welfare
- Composite material
- Materials science
- Market economy
---
*Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*
Bài “Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy” được TradingBase chuyển thành Knowledge Product cho trader — không phải trang đọc abstract OpenAlex.
Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently relative to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of fiscal shocks tends to increase the size of the multipliers in recessions. (JEL C32, E62, H20, H62, H63)
Phần Trading Insights bên dưới nối nghiên cứu với Forex, vàng, USD, lãi suất và risk regime — để bạn đưa vào journal và playbook.
Metadata DOI/OA chỉ là rail tham chiếu; nội dung chính là summary, takeaways và ứng dụng thị trường do Content Factory sinh.
1. A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession.
2. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions.
3. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently relative to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier.
4. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of fiscal shocks tends to increase the size of the multipliers in recessions.
Trader nên nối luận điểm policy/lãi suất trong tài liệu với bias trung hạn của USD và các cặp major — đặc biệt quanh FOMC / dữ liệu CPI.
Với XAUUSD: kỳ vọng cắt lãi / USD yếu thường hỗ trợ vàng; hawkish surprise thường gây áp lực giảm — dùng khung này để đọc reaction sau tin, không đoán trước.
Đọc tài liệu theo góc macro cycle: tăng trưởng / recession narrative ảnh hưởng risk-on/off và correlation giữa equities, USD và vàng.
Góc Forex: đối chiếu kết luận bài với hành giá gần nhất và lịch tin impact cao trước khi vào lệnh.
Góc Gold (XAUUSD): đối chiếu kết luận bài với hành giá gần nhất và lịch tin impact cao trước khi vào lệnh.
Trading: rút 1 bias hoặc 1 setup hypothesis từ Key Takeaways, test trên demo/journal trước khi live.
Risk: chuyển insight thành rule (max risk/trade, pause quanh tin, correlation USD–vàng) và gắn vào playbook.