Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements
In order to explain fairly simply how expectations are formed, we advance the hypothesis that they are essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory. In particular, the hypothesis asserts that the economy generally does not waste information, and that…
# Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements
> OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W2152717893
## Bibliographic
- **DOI:** 10.2307/1909635
- **Year:** 1961
- **Citations:** 5596
- **Open Access:** No (closed)
- **License:** —
- **Source:** https://doi.org/10.2307/1909635
## Authors
- John F. Muth
## Abstract
In order to explain fairly simply how expectations are formed, we advance the hypothesis that they are essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory. In particular, the hypothesis asserts that the economy generally does not waste information, and that expectations depend specifically on the structure of the entire system. Methods of analysis, which are appropriate under special conditions, are described in the context of an isolated market with a fixed production lag. The interpretative value of the hypothesis is illustrated by introducing commodity speculation into the system. 1. INTRODUCTION THAT EXPECTATIONS of economic variables may be subject to error has, for some time, been recognized as an important part of most explanations of changes in the level of business activity. The ex ante analysis of the Stockholm School-although it has created its fair share of confusion-is a highly suggestive approach to short-run problems. It has undoubtedly been a
## Keywords
Economics, Rational expectations, Mathematical economics, Econometrics, Positive economics, Keynesian economics, Financial economics
## Concepts
- Economics
- Rational expectations
- Mathematical economics
- Econometrics
- Positive economics
- Keynesian economics
- Financial economics
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*Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*
Bài “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” được TradingBase chuyển thành Knowledge Product cho trader — không phải trang đọc abstract OpenAlex.
Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): In order to explain fairly simply how expectations are formed, we advance the hypothesis that they are essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory. In particular, the hypothesis asserts that the economy generally does not waste information, and that expectations depend specifically on the structure of the entire system. Methods of analysis, which are appropriate under special conditions, are described in the context of an isolated market with a fixed production lag. The interpretative value of the hypothesis is illustrated by introducing commodity speculation into the system. 1. INTRODUCTION THAT EXPECTATIONS of economic variables may be subject to error has, for some time, been recognized as an important part of most explanations of changes in the level of business activity. The ex ante analysis of the Stockholm School-although it has created its fair share o…
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1. In order to explain fairly simply how expectations are formed, we advance the hypothesis that they are essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory.
2. In particular, the hypothesis asserts that the economy generally does not waste information, and that expectations depend specifically on the structure of the entire system.
3. Methods of analysis, which are appropriate under special conditions, are described in the context of an isolated market with a fixed production lag.
4. The interpretative value of the hypothesis is illustrated by introducing commodity speculation into the system.
5. INTRODUCTION THAT EXPECTATIONS of economic variables may be subject to error has, for some time, been recognized as an important part of most explanations of changes in the level of business activity.
6. The ex ante analysis of the Stockholm School-although it has created its fair share of confusion-is a highly suggestive approach to short-run problems.
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