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The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact…

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Economics · Fiscal policy · Bayesian vector autoregression · Vector autoregression · Government revenue · Gross domestic product · Monetary economics · Macroeconomics

# The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy > OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W2167955907 ## Bibliographic - **DOI:** 10.1080/00036846.2011.591732 - **Year:** 2011 - **Citations:** 268 - **Open Access:** Yes (hybrid) - **License:** cc-by - **Source:** https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.591732 ## Authors - António Afonso - Ricardo M. Sousa ## Abstract We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model. ## Keywords Economics, Fiscal policy, Bayesian vector autoregression, Vector autoregression, Government revenue, Gross domestic product, Monetary economics, Macroeconomics, Government debt, Stock (firearms), Government spending, Crowding out, Real gross domestic product, Debt, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Monetary policy, Econometrics, Public finance, Bayesian probability, Welfare ## Concepts - Economics - Fiscal policy - Bayesian vector autoregression - Vector autoregression - Government revenue - Gross domestic product - Monetary economics - Macroeconomics - Government debt - Stock (firearms) - Government spending - Crowding out - Real gross domestic product - Debt - Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium - Monetary policy - Econometrics - Public finance - Bayesian probability - Welfare - Computer science - Market economy - Artificial intelligence - Mechanical engineering - Engineering --- *Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*
Bài “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy” được TradingBase chuyển thành Knowledge Product cho trader — không phải trang đọc abstract OpenAlex. Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the governme… Phần Trading Insights bên dưới nối nghiên cứu với Forex, vàng, USD, lãi suất và risk regime — để bạn đưa vào journal và playbook. Metadata DOI/OA chỉ là rail tham chiếu; nội dung chính là summary, takeaways và ứng dụng thị trường do Content Factory sinh.

1. We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach.

2. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy.

3. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices.

4. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices.

5. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model.

Trader nên nối luận điểm policy/lãi suất trong tài liệu với bias trung hạn của USD và các cặp major — đặc biệt quanh FOMC / dữ liệu CPI.

Với XAUUSD: kỳ vọng cắt lãi / USD yếu thường hỗ trợ vàng; hawkish surprise thường gây áp lực giảm — dùng khung này để đọc reaction sau tin, không đoán trước.

Đọc tài liệu theo góc macro cycle: tăng trưởng / recession narrative ảnh hưởng risk-on/off và correlation giữa equities, USD và vàng.

Góc Forex: đối chiếu kết luận bài với hành giá gần nhất và lịch tin impact cao trước khi vào lệnh.

Góc Gold (XAUUSD): đối chiếu kết luận bài với hành giá gần nhất và lịch tin impact cao trước khi vào lệnh.

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