The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank

# The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank > OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W1966823661 ## Bibliographic - **DOI:** 10.1016/s0014-2921(96)00050-5 - **Year:** 1997 - **Citations:** 549 - **Open Access:** Yes (hybrid) - **License:** cc-by-nc-nd - **Source:** https://doi.org/10.1016/s0014-2921(96)00050-5 ## Authors - Arturo Estrella - Frederic S. Mishkin ## Abstract This paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both Europe and the United States. The results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread, but is unlikely to be the only determinant. In addition, there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation. The yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which, along with other information, can be used to help guide European monetary policy. ## Keywords Yield curve, Predictive power, Economics, Monetary policy, Inflation (cosmology), Term (time), Interest rate, Monetary economics, Yield (engineering), Inflation targeting, Macroeconomics, Econometrics ## Concepts - Yield curve - Predictive power - Economics - Monetary policy - Inflation (cosmology) - Term (time) - Interest rate - Monetary economics - Yield (engineering) - Inflation targeting - Macroeconomics - Econometrics - Theoretical physics - Philosophy - Materials science - Physics - Metallurgy - Epistemology - Quantum mechanics --- *Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*

Bài “The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank” được TradingBase chuyển thành Knowledge Product cho trader — không phải trang đọc abstract OpenAlex. Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): This paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both Europe and the United States. The results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread, but is unlikely to be the only determinant. In addition, there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation. The yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which, along with other information, can be used to help guide European monetary policy. Phần Trading Insights bên dưới nối nghiên cứu với Forex, vàng, USD, lãi suất và risk regime — để bạn đưa vào journal và playbook. Metadata DOI/OA chỉ là rail tham chiếu; nội dung chính là summary, takeaways và ứng dụng thị trường do Content Factory sinh.