The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy

# The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy > OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W2158530592 ## Bibliographic - **DOI:** 10.1111/ecoj.12332 - **Year:** 2015 - **Citations:** 548 - **Open Access:** Yes (bronze) - **License:** — - **Source:** https://academic.oup.com/ej/article-pdf/126/590/219/26438523/ej0219.pdf ## Authors - Òscar Jordà - Alan M. Taylor ## Abstract After the Global Financial Crisis, a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This article, reconciles seemingly disparate estimates of multipliers within a unified and state‐contingent framework. We achieve identification of causal effects with new propensity‐score based methods for time series data. Using this novel approach, we show that austerity is always a drag on growth, and especially so in depressed economies: a 1% of GDP fiscal consolidation translates into a loss of 3.5% of real GDP over five years when implemented in a slump, rather than just 1.8% in a boom. ## Keywords Austerity, Fiscal year, History, Fiscal policy, Economic history, Political science, Economics, Keynesian economics, Law, Politics ## Concepts - Austerity - Fiscal year - History - Fiscal policy - Economic history - Political science - Economics - Keynesian economics - Law - Politics --- *Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*

Bài “The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy” được TradingBase chuyển thành Knowledge Product cho trader — không phải trang đọc abstract OpenAlex. Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): After the Global Financial Crisis, a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This article, reconciles seemingly disparate estimates of multipliers within a unified and state‐contingent framework. We achieve identification of causal effects with new propensity‐score based methods for time series data. Using this novel approach, we show that austerity is always a drag on growth, and especially so in depressed economies: a 1% of GDP fiscal consolidation translates into a loss of 3.5% of real GDP over five years when implemented in a slump, rather than just 1.8% in a boom. Phần Trading Insights bên dưới nối nghiên cứu với Forex, vàng, USD, lãi suất và risk regime — để bạn đưa vào journal và playbook. Metadata DOI/OA chỉ là rail tham chiếu; nội dung chính là summary, takeaways và ứng dụng thị trường do Content Factory sinh.