Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty*

# Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty* > OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W3126081245 ## Bibliographic - **DOI:** 10.1093/qje/qjw024 - **Year:** 2016 - **Citations:** 11973 - **Open Access:** Yes (bronze) - **License:** — - **Source:** https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-pdf/131/4/1593/30636768/qjw024.pdf ## Authors - Scott Baker - Nicholas Bloom - Steven J. Davis ## Abstract Abstract We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence—including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles—indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our U.S. index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt ceiling dispute, and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, health care, finance, and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel vector autoregressive setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our U.S. index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upward since the 1960s. ## Keywords Economics, Newspaper, Volatility (finance), Index (typography), Fiscal policy, Presidential system, Monetary policy, Debt, Macroeconomics, Economic policy, Monetary economics, Finance, Business, Political science ## Concepts - Economics - Newspaper - Volatility (finance) - Index (typography) - Fiscal policy - Presidential system - Monetary policy - Debt - Macroeconomics - Economic policy - Monetary economics - Finance - Business - Political science - Advertising - Computer science - World Wide Web - Politics - Law --- *Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*

Bài “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty*” được TradingBase chuyển thành Knowledge Product cho trader — không phải trang đọc abstract OpenAlex. Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): Abstract We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence—including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles—indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our U.S. index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt ceiling dispute, and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, health care, finance, and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel vector autoregressive setting, for … Phần Trading Insights bên dưới nối nghiên cứu với Forex, vàng, USD, lãi suất và risk regime — để bạn đưa vào journal và playbook. Metadata DOI/OA chỉ là rail tham chiếu; nội dung chính là summary, takeaways và ứng dụng thị trường do Content Factory sinh.