Macro
US July CPI 3.4% y/y vs 3.4% expected
US July CPI 3.4% y/y vs 3.4% expected. Prior was 3.5% CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% exp Prior CPI was -0.4% Unrounded vs -0.349% prior Core readings: Core y/y 2.5% vs 2.5% expected Prior core was 2.6% Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Prior m/m +0.
Entities & knowledge links
Executive summary
US July CPI 3.4% y/y vs 3.4% expected. Prior was 3.5% CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% exp Prior CPI was -0.4% Unrounded vs -0.349% prior Core readings: Core y/y 2.5% vs 2.5% expected Prior core was 2.6% Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Prior m/m +0.
US July CPI 3.4% y/y vs 3.4% expected
Lead
US July CPI 3.4% y/y vs 3.4% expected. Prior was 3.5% CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% exp Prior CPI was -0.4% Unrounded vs -0.349% prior Core readings: Core y/y 2.5% vs 2.5% expected Prior core was 2.6% Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Prior m/m +0.
Context
Prior was 3.5% CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% exp Prior CPI was -0.4% Unrounded vs -0.349% prior Core readings: Core y/y 2.5% vs 2.5% expected Prior core was 2.6% Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected Prior m/m +0.0% Unrounded % m/m vs -0.017% prior Core-CPI services ex-shelter m/m % vs -0.089% prior Core goods % m/m vs -0.086% m/m prior Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in a 44% chance of a rate hike in September and 24.4 bps in hikes this year. USD/JPY was trading at 159.04 ahead of the report. Key sub-components: Owners' equivalent rent: vs +0.24% prior Rent of primary residence: vs +0.15% pri…
Conclusion
Awaiting TradingBase editorial rewrite. This draft retains source lead only — not investment advice.
Market impact
This article presents verified public information. Price reaction depends on liquidity and what was already priced in — no directional call is made here.
Institutional framing
TradingBase presents market updates in an institutional financial-news format. This is not investment advice.
Market watch
Track the economic calendar at Economic Calendar, price action at Markets, and signals at Signals.
NIC · Impact scores
Global: 77 · Market: 80 · Urgency: 53 · Confidence: 90 · Bullish
Themes: inflation, rates
Asset impact
- USD — Bullish (67) · USD leans bullish based on headline/body drivers.
- JPY — Bullish (67) · JPY leans bullish based on headline/body drivers.
- Forex — Bullish (67) · Forex leans bullish based on headline/body drivers.
Market reaction
- DXY: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
- USDJPY: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
- FX: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
Trading insight
Analysis only. Not a trade signal. Not investment advice. No Entry/TP/SL is generated by NIC.
Scenarios
- Continuation if confirmation holds after the news window.
- Whipsaw risk is elevated inside the first 15–60 minutes after release.
- For XAUUSD, map USD/rate impulse first, then confirm direction on M15 structure.
Watch factors
- Actual vs forecast surprise (priced-in risk)
- USD / yields impulse if macro-sensitive
- Liquidity and spread during the news window
- Follow-through after T+15m / T+60m
- Relative reaction in usd
- Relative reaction in jpy
- Relative reaction in forex
Related events
Related knowledge
USD/JPY stalls ahead of a key US CPI report; BoJ expected to raise rates in September
Related news correlation
FX option expiries for 12 August 10am New York cut
Related news correlation
What are the main events for today?
Related news correlation
Australia sets world leading pay floor for 250,000 gig delivery workers
Related news correlation
CPI
Matched terminology in article
India’s CPI rises further to 4.45% in July as food prices accelerate
Related news correlation
Macro & Gold Foundations
Macro-sensitive topic
TradingBase Library
Research depth for related concepts
Ask AI about this article
Answers are grounded in the published article “US July CPI 3.4% y/y vs 3.4% expected” and NIC scores — no invented figures.