The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks
This paper investigates the impact of tax changes on economic activity. We use the narrative record, such as presidential speeches and Congressional reports, to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This analysis allows us…
# The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks
> OpenAlex Metadata Hub · https://openalex.org/W2140286179
## Bibliographic
- **DOI:** 10.1257/aer.100.3.763
- **Year:** 2010
- **Citations:** 2109
- **Open Access:** No (closed)
- **License:** —
- **Source:** https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.3.763
## Authors
- Christina Romer
- David Romer
## Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of tax changes on economic activity. We use the narrative record, such as presidential speeches and Congressional reports, to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This analysis allows us to separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions and those taken for more exogenous reasons. The behavior of output following these more exogenous changes indicates that tax increases are highly contractionary. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes. (JEL E32, E62, H20, N12)
## Keywords
Economics, Fiscal policy, Monetary economics, Presidential system, Macroeconomics, Principal (computer security), Tax reform, Indirect tax, Direct tax, Econometrics, Public economics, Value-added tax, Political science
## Concepts
- Economics
- Fiscal policy
- Monetary economics
- Presidential system
- Macroeconomics
- Principal (computer security)
- Tax reform
- Indirect tax
- Direct tax
- Econometrics
- Public economics
- Value-added tax
- Political science
- Computer science
- Operating system
- Law
- Politics
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*Metadata only — full text not imported unless Open Access license permits.*
Bài “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks” được TradingBase chuyển thành Knowledge Product cho trader — không phải trang đọc abstract OpenAlex.
Tóm lược học thuật (đã diễn giải): This paper investigates the impact of tax changes on economic activity. We use the narrative record, such as presidential speeches and Congressional reports, to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This analysis allows us to separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions and those taken for more exogenous reasons. The behavior of output following these more exogenous changes indicates that tax increases are highly contractionary. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes. (JEL E32, E62, H20, N12)
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Metadata DOI/OA chỉ là rail tham chiếu; nội dung chính là summary, takeaways và ứng dụng thị trường do Content Factory sinh.
1. This paper investigates the impact of tax changes on economic activity.
2. We use the narrative record, such as presidential speeches and Congressional reports, to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions.
3. This analysis allows us to separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions and those taken for more exogenous reasons.
4. The behavior of output following these more exogenous changes indicates that tax increases are highly contractionary.
5. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes.
Trader nên nối luận điểm policy/lãi suất trong tài liệu với bias trung hạn của USD và các cặp major — đặc biệt quanh FOMC / dữ liệu CPI.
Với XAUUSD: kỳ vọng cắt lãi / USD yếu thường hỗ trợ vàng; hawkish surprise thường gây áp lực giảm — dùng khung này để đọc reaction sau tin, không đoán trước.
Đọc tài liệu theo góc macro cycle: tăng trưởng / recession narrative ảnh hưởng risk-on/off và correlation giữa equities, USD và vàng.
Góc Forex: đối chiếu kết luận bài với hành giá gần nhất và lịch tin impact cao trước khi vào lệnh.
Góc Gold (XAUUSD): đối chiếu kết luận bài với hành giá gần nhất và lịch tin impact cao trước khi vào lệnh.
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