Commodities

Goldman Sachs Projects Brent Could Reach $120 Amid Hormuz Disruptions

Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel by Q4 2026 if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. The bank's analysis highlights the vulnerability of oil supply chains amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a base case projection of $80 per barrel if de-escalation occurs.

Continued geopolitical tensions in the Gulf could lead to significant price increases in crude oil markets.

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Executive summary

Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel by Q4 2026 if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. The bank's analysis highlights the vulnerability of oil supply chains amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a base case projection of $80 per barrel if de-escalation occurs.

Goldman Sachs has indicated that Brent crude oil prices could approach $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026 if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. The strait is a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, and any sustained disruption could sharply tighten physical supply. Currently, oil flows from the Persian Gulf have fallen below 45% of pre-war levels, contributing to heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.

The bank's base case remains at $80 per barrel for Q4 2026 and $75 for 2027, assuming a de-escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran. However, if the current disruptions persist, Goldman suggests that Brent could average $100 per barrel throughout 2027.

Recent market movements have seen Brent prices peak at over $90 per barrel in mid-July, before retreating to $88.47 as ceasefire discussions emerged. The analysts noted that tight diesel markets, ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and potential spikes in natural gas prices further complicate the outlook, reinforcing the potential for higher oil prices.

The analysis underscores the precarious state of the oil market, which is currently influenced by a wide range of outcomes dependent on geopolitical developments in the Gulf region. Traders are likely to continue factoring in a geopolitical premium as long as ceasefire negotiations remain unresolved.

Market impact

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NIC · Impact scores

Global: 0 · Market: 0 · Urgency: 0 · Confidence: 0 · Neutral

Market reaction

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  • USOIL: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
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Scenarios

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Watch factors

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  • Follow-through after T+15m / T+60m
  • Relative reaction in gold
  • Relative reaction in oil
  • Relative reaction in natural_gas
  • Relative reaction in commodities

Knowledge links

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References

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