Economics

Singapore's MAS Expected to Maintain Steady Policy Amid Mild Inflation

A recent Reuters poll indicates that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is likely to keep its monetary policy unchanged during its review on July 27, with core inflation remaining below the official target range. Despite rising energy costs due to Middle East tensions, analysts believe current inflationary pressures do not warrant a tightening.

Majority of Analysts Predict No Change in SGD NEER as Economic Conditions Remain Manageable

TradingBase News Intelligence
· 2 min read
← Back to News Centre
ContentsSummaryArticleContext & watchlist

Executive summary

A recent Reuters poll indicates that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is likely to keep its monetary policy unchanged during its review on July 27, with core inflation remaining below the official target range. Despite rising energy costs due to Middle East tensions, analysts believe current inflationary pressures do not warrant a tightening.

A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its current monetary policy stance during the upcoming review on July 27. The poll reveals that 12 out of 16 analysts foresee no change in the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGD NEER), while four anticipate a tightening.

Current inflation rates are considered manageable, with core inflation recorded at 1.6% in June, falling within the MAS's target range of 1.5% to 2.5% for 2026. The backdrop includes ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the naval blockade imposed by Houthi forces on Saudi Arabia, which poses potential risks to global energy supplies.

Despite these tensions, Economist Intelligence Unit analyst Qi Hang Tay suggests that the MAS is likely to hold its policy steady, citing subdued core inflation and a milder-than-expected pass-through from rising energy costs. He notes that a significant tightening of the policy band would require a more severe inflation shock.

Conversely, Oxford Economics senior economist Sheana Yue argues for a modest tightening, pointing to stronger-than-expected economic growth of 5.7% year-on-year in Q2, driven by demand for AI-related chips. This growth, combined with rising oil prices, could lead to a more inflationary environment in the coming quarters.

The MAS has previously tightened its policy in April after maintaining it through three prior meetings. Analysts are closely monitoring the impact of El Niño-related weather disruptions on food inflation, alongside energy cost pressures from ongoing regional conflicts.

In summary, while the MAS is expected to keep its policy unchanged, the divergent views among economists highlight the complexities of the current economic landscape.

Market impact

This article presents verified public information. Price reaction depends on liquidity and what was already priced in — no directional call is made here.

Institutional framing

TradingBase News Centre presents market updates in an institutional financial-news format. This is not investment advice.

Market watch

Track the economic calendar at Economic Calendar, price action at Markets, and signals at Signals.

NIC · Impact scores

Global: 60 · Market: 60 · Urgency: 43 · Confidence: 90 · Neutral

Themes: inflation, rates, geopolitics, energy

Asset impact

  • Oil — Neutral (55) · Oil mentioned with balanced cues.
  • USD — Bullish (55) · USD leans bullish based on headline/body drivers.
  • AUD — Neutral (55) · AUD mentioned with balanced cues.
  • Commodities — Neutral (55) · Commodities mentioned with balanced cues.
  • Forex — Neutral (55) · Forex mentioned with balanced cues.

Market reaction

  • USOIL: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
  • DXY: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
  • AUDUSD: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
  • DJP: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
  • FX: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m

Trading insight (analysis only)

Analysis only. Not a trade signal. Not investment advice. No Entry/TP/SL is generated by NIC.

Scenarios

  • Two-way reaction likely until the market digests the data surprise vs forecast.
  • Whipsaw risk is elevated inside the first 15–60 minutes after release.
  • For XAUUSD, map USD/rate impulse first, then confirm direction on M15 structure.

Watch factors

  • Actual vs forecast surprise (priced-in risk)
  • USD / yields impulse if macro-sensitive
  • Liquidity and spread during the news window
  • Follow-through after T+15m / T+60m
  • Relative reaction in oil
  • Relative reaction in usd
  • Relative reaction in aud
  • Relative reaction in commodities

Knowledge links

Interest RatesInflationOilAIPolicyGeopoliticsEnergyEU

References

Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Related

Economics

Japan Warns of Accelerating Cost Pass-Through Inflation as BOJ Expected to Maintain Rates

Japan's Cabinet Office warns that companies are passing on rising costs from the Middle East conflict more rapidly than during the 2022 Ukraine energy crisis. This aligns with the Bank of Japan's assessment that inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched, even as the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting.

Economics

ECB Maintains Key Interest Rates Amid Ongoing Economic Uncertainty

The European Central Bank's Governing Council has decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged, citing high volatility in energy prices and ongoing uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions. The Council remains committed to achieving its inflation target of 2% in the medium term.

Economics

ECB Expected to Maintain Current Policy Ahead of September Rate Hike

The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to keep its monetary policy unchanged during today's meeting, with a focus on data-driven decision-making. The next significant policy action is expected in September, when a final rate hike is projected.

Economics

Japan's Inflation Rate Rises to 1.7% in June 2026

Japan's inflation rate for June 2026 has increased to 1.7% year-on-year, up from 1.5% in the previous month. Core inflation, excluding food, rose to 1.6%, indicating a broader trend of rising prices.