Macro
US Treasury sells $70B of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.408%
US Treasury sells $70B of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.408%. High yield 4.408% WI level at the time of the auction 4.399% Tail +0.9 basis points vs Six-month average of 0.6 basis points Bid to cover 2.28X vs average 2.33X Directs 27.22
Executive summary
US Treasury sells $70B of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.408%. High yield 4.408% WI level at the time of the auction 4.399% Tail +0.9 basis points vs Six-month average of 0.6 basis points Bid to cover 2.28X vs average 2.33X Directs 27.22
US Treasury sells $70B of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.408%
Lead US Treasury sells $70B of 5 year notes at a high yield of 4.408%. High yield 4.408% WI level at the time of the auction 4.399% Tail +0.9 basis points vs Six-month average of 0.6 basis points Bid to cover 2.28X vs average 2.33X Directs 27.22
Context High yield 4.408% WI level at the time of the auction 4.399% Tail +0.9 basis points vs Six-month average of 0.6 basis points Bid to cover 2.28X vs average 2.33X Directs 27.22% versus average of 21.4% Indirects 59.25% versus average of 65.6% Dealers 13.53% versus average of 12.9% AUCTION GRADE D+ Tail below average, Bid to cover below average. Directs above average, Indirects below average. Dealers above average (negative). If I grade easy it is a C-, but not today. It is a D+ was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Conclusion Awaiting TradingBase editorial rewrite. This draft retains source lead only — not investment advice.
Market impact
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NIC · Impact scores
Global: 60 · Market: 60 · Urgency: 50 · Confidence: 90 · Neutral
Themes: rates
Asset impact
- Bonds — Neutral (55) · Bonds mentioned with balanced cues.
- Forex — Neutral (55) · Forex mentioned with balanced cues.
Market reaction
- US10Y: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
- FX: Price snapshot pending · T-15m / T0 / T+15m / T+60m
Trading insight
Analysis only. Not a trade signal. Not investment advice. No Entry/TP/SL is generated by NIC.
Scenarios
- Two-way reaction likely until the market digests the data surprise vs forecast.
- Whipsaw risk is elevated inside the first 15–60 minutes after release.
- Watch correlated assets for confirmation rather than reacting to the headline alone.
Watch factors
- Actual vs forecast surprise (priced-in risk)
- USD / yields impulse if macro-sensitive
- Liquidity and spread during the news window
- Follow-through after T+15m / T+60m
- Relative reaction in bonds
- Relative reaction in forex
Knowledge links
- Yield (glossary) — Matched terminology in article
- Macro & Gold Foundations (academy) — Macro-sensitive topic
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- TradingBase Library (library) — Research depth for related concepts